MoneyChoice Economic Forecast  ·  moneychoice.us

Model-driven outlook for key U.S. economic releases

Published: September 12, 2026 Model: MoneyChoice Forecast Engine, MCP macro forecasts Coverage: PPI, Retail Sales, CPI, Building Permits

Executive Summary

The week of September 14–18, 2026 features a dense data calendar, with Thursday serving as the busiest release day as Advance Retail Sales (−1.33% m/m) and Industrial Production (−1.64% m/m) both cross the tape. Inflation signals diverge sharply, as Producer Price Index is forecast to rise 2.90% m/m while Consumer Price Index is expected to decline 1.28% m/m, a spread that will warrant close scrutiny. The week concludes Friday with Building Permits, projected at −1.28% m/m, offering a final read on housing activity.

Model Forecast Summary
IndicatorImpactForecast (Aug)Previous (Jul)Change
Producer Price Index
Tue 9/15 · 8:30 AM ET
High292.61284.35▲ +2.90%
Advance Retail Sales
Thu 9/17 · 8:30 AM ET
High$228.7B$231.8B▼ −1.33%
Consumer Price Index
Wed 9/16 · 8:30 AM ET
High334.01338.35▼ −1.28%
Building Permits
Fri 9/18 · 8:30 AM ET
Med1,414K1,432K▼ −1.28%
Industrial Production
Thu 9/17 · 9:15 AM ET
Med98.36100.00▼ −1.64%
Forecast Detail
Producer Price Index
292.61
Previous: 284.35 (Jul 2026)
▲ +2.90% m/m
Release: Tue, September 15 · 8:30 AM ET
MarAug
Advance Retail Sales
$228.7B
Previous: $231.8B (Jul 2026)
▼ −1.33% m/m
Release: Thu, September 17 · 8:30 AM ET
MarAug
Consumer Price Index
334.01
Previous: 338.35 (Jul 2026)
▼ −1.28% m/m
Release: Wed, September 16 · 8:30 AM ET
MarAug
Building Permits
1,414K
Previous: 1,432K (Jul 2026)
▼ −1.28% m/m
Release: Fri, September 18 · 8:30 AM ET
MarAug
Release Calendar, Sep 14–18, 2026
ReportTime (ET)
Monday, September 14
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
Tuesday, September 15
Producer Price Index (Aug)8:30 AM
Wednesday, September 16
Consumer Price Index (Aug)8:30 AM
Thursday, September 17
Advance Retail Sales (Aug)8:30 AM
Initial Jobless Claims8:30 AM
Industrial Production (Aug)9:15 AM
Friday, September 18
Building Permits (Aug)8:30 AM
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