MoneyChoice Economic Forecast  ·  moneychoice.us

Model-driven outlook for key U.S. economic releases

Published: July 4, 2026 Model: MoneyChoice Forecast Engine — MCP macro forecasts Coverage: PPI, Retail Sales, CPI, Building Permits

Executive Summary

The upcoming week’s economic data releases, all of which were published in the prior period, indicate a mixed trajectory for the U.S. economy, with consumer and producer price indices showing modest month-over-month increases of +0.48% and +3.19%, respectively, while industrial production and building permits are forecast to contract by −0.51% and −1.86% month-over-month. Advance retail sales are expected to rise by a slight +0.45% month-over-month, suggesting resilient consumer spending amid inflationary pressures. No single day stands out as the busiest release day, as all key indicators were disseminated in the preceding week.

Model Forecast Summary
IndicatorImpactForecast (Jun)Previous (May)Change
Producer Price Index
Released prior week
High292.60283.56▲ +3.19%
Advance Retail Sales
Released prior week
High$228.8B$227.8B▲ +0.45%
Consumer Price Index
Released prior week
High334.00332.42▲ +0.48%
Building Permits
Released prior week
Med1,414K1,441K▼ −1.86%
Industrial Production
Released prior week
Med98.3698.86▼ −0.51%
Forecast Detail
Producer Price Index
292.60
Previous: 283.56 (May 2026)
▲ +3.19% m/m
Released prior week
JanJun
Advance Retail Sales
$228.8B
Previous: $227.8B (May 2026)
▲ +0.45% m/m
Released prior week
JanJun
Consumer Price Index
334.00
Previous: 332.42 (May 2026)
▲ +0.48% m/m
Released prior week
JanJun
Building Permits
1,414K
Previous: 1,441K (May 2026)
▼ −1.86% m/m
Released prior week
JanJun
Release Calendar — Jul 6–10, 2026
ReportTime (ET)
Monday, July 6
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
Tuesday, July 7
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
Wednesday, July 8
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
Thursday, July 9
Initial Jobless Claims8:30 AM
Friday, July 10
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
⚠ Disclaimer: This content is generated by quantitative models for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.