Research Report | View Full Analysis
Analysis based on 20+ years of historical data from FRED economic indicators.
This report analyzes 9 major economic categories and 14 statistically significant causal relationships between them.
Economic Categories Analyzed: Inflation , Real Estate, Commodities, Retail, Manufacturing, Interest Rates & Bond Yields, Labor, GDP, Currency
Relationship Patterns: Across 20+ years of data, we observe 14 statistically significant causal relationships:
The following diagram visualizes the causal relationships between economic categories. Arrows indicate the direction of causality, with colors representing relationship strength.
1. Inflation ↔ Real Estate
These categories exhibit bidirectional causality with 100% causal strength, indicating either mutual influence or shared exposure to common economic drivers.
Statistical Metrics: Maximum causal strength: 100% | Average causal strength: 100% | Indicator pairs analyzed: 20
2. Inflation → Commodities
Changes in Inflation consistently precede changes in Commodities by approximately one month, with 100% causal strength.
Statistical Metrics: Maximum causal strength: 100% | Average causal strength: 100% | Indicator pairs analyzed: 8
3. Manufacturing ↔ Retail
These categories exhibit bidirectional causality with 100% causal strength, indicating either mutual influence or shared exposure to common economic drivers.
Statistical Metrics: Maximum causal strength: 100% | Average causal strength: 100% | Indicator pairs analyzed: 43
4. Inflation ↔ Interest Rates & Bond Yields
These categories exhibit bidirectional causality with 100% causal strength, indicating either mutual influence or shared exposure to common economic drivers.
Statistical Metrics: Maximum causal strength: 100% | Average causal strength: 100% | Indicator pairs analyzed: 9
5. Interest Rates & Bond Yields ↔ Retail
These categories exhibit bidirectional causality with 100% causal strength, indicating either mutual influence or shared exposure to common economic drivers.
Statistical Metrics: Maximum causal strength: 100% | Average causal strength: 100% | Indicator pairs analyzed: 13
While these relationships have demonstrated consistency across 20+ years of historical data, the current macroeconomic environment represents a significant regime shift characterized by:
Implication: The historical relationships have been validated across multiple economic cycles. However, during the current regime shift, the magnitude of responses may be amplified or dampened, and the typical one-month lag period should be monitored for potential variations.
This research report presents observations based on 20+ years of historical economic data, revealing consistent causal relationships between major economic categories. These relationships provide a framework for understanding how economic shocks propagate through the system. However, the current macroeconomic regime shift requires careful monitoring to assess whether historical patterns continue to hold or if structural changes are emerging.