MoneyChoice ■ Economic Forecast · moneychoice.us
Model-driven outlook for key U.S. economic releases
Executive Summary
The upcoming week’s U.S. data calendar is front-loaded with critical inflation and activity indicators, with the busiest release day falling on Thursday, August 13. We anticipate a notable divergence in price pressures, as the Producer Price Index is forecast to decline sharply by 2.82% m/m, while the Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 1.30% m/m, suggesting persistent downstream inflation despite easing upstream costs. Concurrently, Advance Retail Sales are projected to expand 1.30% m/m, and Industrial Production is set to gain 1.67% m/m, pointing to resilient consumer demand and firmer manufacturing output.
Model Forecast Summary
| Indicator | Impact | Forecast (Jul) | Previous (Jun) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Producer Price Index Tue 8/11 · 8:30 AM ET | High | 284.35 | 292.60 | ▼ −2.82% |
Advance Retail Sales Thu 8/13 · 8:30 AM ET | High | $231.8B | $228.8B | ▲ +1.30% |
Consumer Price Index Wed 8/12 · 8:30 AM ET | High | 338.35 | 334.00 | ▲ +1.30% |
Industrial Production Thu 8/13 · 9:15 AM ET | Med | 100.00 | 98.36 | ▲ +1.67% |
Building Permits Released prior week | Med | 1,432K | 1,414K | ▲ +1.30% |
Forecast Detail
Producer Price Index
284.35
Previous: 292.60 (Jun 2026)
▼ −2.82% m/m
Release: Tue, August 11 · 8:30 AM ET
FebJul
Advance Retail Sales
$231.8B
Previous: $228.8B (Jun 2026)
▲ +1.30% m/m
Release: Thu, August 13 · 8:30 AM ET
FebJul
Consumer Price Index
338.35
Previous: 334.00 (Jun 2026)
▲ +1.30% m/m
Release: Wed, August 12 · 8:30 AM ET
FebJul
Industrial Production
100.00
Previous: 98.36 (Jun 2026)
▲ +1.67% m/m
Release: Thu, August 13 · 9:15 AM ET
FebJul
Release Calendar — Aug 10–14, 2026
| Report | Time (ET) | |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, August 10 | ||
| No major model-tracked releases scheduled | ||
| Tuesday, August 11 | ||
| Producer Price Index (Jul) | 8:30 AM | |
| Wednesday, August 12 | ||
| Consumer Price Index (Jul) | 8:30 AM | |
| Thursday, August 13 | ||
| Advance Retail Sales (Jul) | 8:30 AM | |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 8:30 AM | |
| Industrial Production (Jul) | 9:15 AM | |
| Friday, August 14 | ||
| No major model-tracked releases scheduled | ||
⚠ Disclaimer: This content is generated by quantitative models for educational and discussion purposes only.
It does not constitute financial advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.