Model-driven outlook for key U.S. economic releases
Executive Summary
Next week's U.S. data calendar is front-loaded with inflation and activity indicators, and Thursday, August 13, is the busy day. Our model has price pressures splitting in two directions: Producer Price Index forecast at 284.35, down 2.82% m/m from 292.60, while Consumer Price Index is forecast at 338.35, up 1.30% m/m from 334.00. If that holds, upstream costs ease while downstream prices don't. Advance Retail Sales are projected at $231.8B, up 1.30% m/m from $228.8B. Industrial Production is forecast at 100.00, up 1.67% m/m from 98.36. Consumer demand and factory output both look firm on these numbers.
| Indicator | Impact | Forecast (Jul) | Previous (Jun) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Producer Price Index Tue 8/11 · 8:30 AM ET | High | 284.35 | 292.60 | ▼ −2.82% |
Advance Retail Sales Thu 8/13 · 8:30 AM ET | High | $231.8B | $228.8B | ▲ +1.30% |
Consumer Price Index Wed 8/12 · 8:30 AM ET | High | 338.35 | 334.00 | ▲ +1.30% |
Industrial Production Thu 8/13 · 9:15 AM ET | Med | 100.00 | 98.36 | ▲ +1.67% |
Building Permits Released prior week | Med | 1,432K | 1,414K | ▲ +1.30% |
| Report | Time (ET) | |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, August 10 | ||
| No major model-tracked releases scheduled | ||
| Tuesday, August 11 | ||
| Producer Price Index (Jul) | 8:30 AM | |
| Wednesday, August 12 | ||
| Consumer Price Index (Jul) | 8:30 AM | |
| Thursday, August 13 | ||
| Advance Retail Sales (Jul) | 8:30 AM | |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 8:30 AM | |
| Industrial Production (Jul) | 9:15 AM | |
| Friday, August 14 | ||
| No major model-tracked releases scheduled | ||
Quick questions
What should traders know about Aug 10–14, 2026?
Start with the risk signals (volume, fake breakouts, AM flags), then decide whether your setup still has a clear price target and time window before you size up.
How does MoneyChoice help with aug?
Use free Smart Lens to scan a ticker for artificial manipulation flags, then verify timed ideas on Capital or live ideas.
Is this investment advice?
No. These posts are educational market commentary. Trading involves risk, and past model hit rates do not guarantee future results.