Model-driven outlook for key U.S. economic releases
Executive Summary
The upcoming week’s U.S. economic data calendar is headlined by a pronounced contraction in producer prices, with the Producer Price Index forecast to decline 2.82% month-over-month, while consumer-level inflation, as measured by the previously released CPI, is expected to have risen 1.30% m/m. Concurrently, the busiest release day on Thursday, August 20, will feature Advance Retail Sales and Industrial Production, both projected to expand by 1.30% and 1.67% m/m, respectively, alongside a modest 1.30% m/m increase in Building Permits scheduled for Friday. These mixed signals—disinflation at the wholesale level against firming consumer demand and output—will be closely scrutinized for implications on near-term Federal Reserve policy and overall growth momentum.
| Indicator | Impact | Forecast (Jul) | Previous (Jun) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Producer Price Index Tue 8/18 · 8:30 AM ET | High | 284.35 | 292.60 | ▼ −2.82% |
Advance Retail Sales Thu 8/20 · 8:30 AM ET | High | $231.8B | $228.8B | ▲ +1.30% |
Building Permits Fri 8/21 · 8:30 AM ET | Med | 1,432K | 1,414K | ▲ +1.30% |
Industrial Production Thu 8/20 · 9:15 AM ET | Med | 100.00 | 98.36 | ▲ +1.67% |
Consumer Price Index Released prior week | High | 338.35 | 334.00 | ▲ +1.30% |
| Report | Time (ET) | |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, August 17 | ||
| No major model-tracked releases scheduled | ||
| Tuesday, August 18 | ||
| Producer Price Index (Jul) | 8:30 AM | |
| Wednesday, August 19 | ||
| No major model-tracked releases scheduled | ||
| Thursday, August 20 | ||
| Advance Retail Sales (Jul) | 8:30 AM | |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 8:30 AM | |
| Industrial Production (Jul) | 9:15 AM | |
| Friday, August 21 | ||
| Building Permits (Jul) | 8:30 AM | |