MoneyChoice Economic Forecast  ·  moneychoice.us

Model-driven outlook for key U.S. economic releases

Published: September 19, 2026 Model: MoneyChoice Forecast Engine, MCP macro forecasts Coverage: PPI, Retail Sales, CPI, Building Permits

Executive Summary

The September 21–25, 2026 U.S. economic calendar carries no tier-one releases, with the week's principal indicators—Producer Price Index, Advance Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, Building Permits, and Industrial Production—already published in the prior week. Those prints depicted a stagflationary mix, as PPI rose 2.90% m/m while CPI fell 1.28% m/m, Advance Retail Sales declined 1.33% m/m, Building Permits slipped 1.28% m/m, and Industrial Production contracted 1.64% m/m. With no single dominant release day, market attention should instead center on secondary data and Federal Reserve communications for directional confirmation.

Model Forecast Summary
IndicatorImpactForecast (Aug)Previous (Jul)Change
Producer Price Index
Released prior week
High292.61284.35▲ +2.90%
Advance Retail Sales
Released prior week
High$228.7B$231.8B▼ −1.33%
Consumer Price Index
Released prior week
High334.01338.35▼ −1.28%
Building Permits
Released prior week
Med1,414K1,432K▼ −1.28%
Industrial Production
Released prior week
Med98.36100.00▼ −1.64%
Forecast Detail
Producer Price Index
292.61
Previous: 284.35 (Jul 2026)
▲ +2.90% m/m
Released prior week
MarAug
Advance Retail Sales
$228.7B
Previous: $231.8B (Jul 2026)
▼ −1.33% m/m
Released prior week
MarAug
Consumer Price Index
334.01
Previous: 338.35 (Jul 2026)
▼ −1.28% m/m
Released prior week
MarAug
Building Permits
1,414K
Previous: 1,432K (Jul 2026)
▼ −1.28% m/m
Released prior week
MarAug
Release Calendar, Sep 21–25, 2026
ReportTime (ET)
Monday, September 21
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
Tuesday, September 22
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
Wednesday, September 23
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
Thursday, September 24
Initial Jobless Claims8:30 AM
Friday, September 25
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
⚠ Disclaimer: This content is generated by quantitative models for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.