MoneyChoice ■ Economic Forecast  ·  moneychoice.us

Model-driven outlook for key U.S. economic releases

Published: September 19, 2026 Model: MoneyChoice Forecast Engine, MCP macro forecasts Coverage: PPI, Retail Sales, CPI, Building Permits

Executive Summary

The week of September 21–25, 2026 has no tier-one release on the calendar. Everything that mattered already printed: Producer Price Index, Advance Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, Building Permits, and Industrial Production all came out the prior week. Those numbers were a stagflationary mix. PPI rose 2.90% m/m. CPI fell 1.28% m/m. Advance Retail Sales dropped 1.33% m/m. Building Permits slipped 1.28% m/m. Industrial Production contracted 1.64% m/m. With no single release day to anchor the week, the tape will likely trade off secondary data and whatever Fed speakers say.

Model Forecast Summary
IndicatorImpactForecast (Aug)Previous (Jul)Change
Producer Price Index
Released prior week
High292.61284.35▲ +2.90%
Advance Retail Sales
Released prior week
High$228.7B$231.8B▼ −1.33%
Consumer Price Index
Released prior week
High334.01338.35▼ −1.28%
Building Permits
Released prior week
Med1,414K1,432K▼ −1.28%
Industrial Production
Released prior week
Med98.36100.00▼ −1.64%
Forecast Detail
Producer Price Index
292.61
Previous: 284.35 (Jul 2026)
▲ +2.90% m/m
Released prior week
MarAug
Advance Retail Sales
$228.7B
Previous: $231.8B (Jul 2026)
▼ −1.33% m/m
Released prior week
MarAug
Consumer Price Index
334.01
Previous: 338.35 (Jul 2026)
▼ −1.28% m/m
Released prior week
MarAug
Building Permits
1,414K
Previous: 1,432K (Jul 2026)
▼ −1.28% m/m
Released prior week
MarAug
Release Calendar, Sep 21–25, 2026
ReportTime (ET)
Monday, September 21
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
Tuesday, September 22
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
Wednesday, September 23
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
Thursday, September 24
Initial Jobless Claims8:30 AM
Friday, September 25
No major model-tracked releases scheduled
⚠ Disclaimer: This content is generated by quantitative models for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

Quick questions

What should traders know about Sep 21–25, 2026?

Start with the risk signals (volume, fake breakouts, AM flags), then decide whether your setup still has a clear price target and time window before you size up.

How does MoneyChoice help with sep?

Use free Smart Lens to scan a ticker for artificial manipulation flags, then verify timed ideas on Capital or live ideas.

Is this investment advice?

No. These posts are educational market commentary. Trading involves risk, and past model hit rates do not guarantee future results.